Victoria in Future 2008 - Detailed data files
O
verseas migration
Net overseas migration to Australia is assumed to be 200,000 persons per annum for the first three years of the projection period, then 180,000 persons per annum over the remaining period of the projections. This assumption follows closely the ABS medium assumption of 180,000 persons per annum for the entire projection period, as published in "Population Projections Australia, 2006-2101". It is assumed that 26.5% of net overseas migration willl be to Victoria, consistent with ABS assumptions.
180000 x 26.5% = 47700 new imigrants to Victoria every year
Interstate migration
Net interstate migration from Victoria is assumed to be a loss of 2,000 persons per annum for the first three years of the projection period, then a loss of 6,000 persons per annum over the remaining period of the projections. This assumption follows closely the ABS medium assumption of a loss of 6,000 persons per annum for the entire projection period, as published in "Population Projections Australia, 2006-2101".
Net population increase is 47700-6000=41700 per annum projected for Victoria.
New Dwellings
In metropolitan centres such as Melbourne, there are not unlimited opportunities for housing development.
Additional dwellings are generally only created in three ways.
1. in established residential areas, through infill development (the take-up of unused lots or portions of lots, or the creation of vacant lots through demolition). i.e. vacant block or subdivision in established areas
2. Secondly, land can be converted to residential use from a former non-residential use, such as industry or education. The resulting developments are known as major redevelopment sites.
3. new dwellings can be constructed on broadhectare, or greenfields sites - vacant (generally ex-rural) land which is zoned for subdivision.
Population and number of Private Dwelling Growth Trend by LGA:
LGA with the sharpest poulation growth trends are:
Casey
Wyndam
Whittlesea
Cardinia
Which is a result of availability of additional dwellings in these areas to accomadate the growing population
Average household size change Trend by LGA:
* To calculate average household size, divide Persons in Occupied Private Dwellings (POPD) by Occupied Private Dwellings (OPD)
Across all LGAs, average houlse hold size is projected to decrease slightly by 0.13 over the next 20 years. No LGA is projected to have a different trend.
Larger household size indicates more demands for larger family homes
The household size decreases slightly across all LGAs
City of Nillumbik, City of Hume, City of whittleseas currently has the highest household size of 3.03, 3.02, 2.99, and City of Port Phillip and City of Melbourne rank the lowest at 1.89 and 1.92 respectively.
Year to June 30th 2009
** The total for the Shire of Yarra Ranges does not include data for the Statistical Local Area (SLA) of "Yarra Ranges (S) - Pt B", as this lies outside the Melbourne Statistical Division
Melbourne Statistical Division 2.57
Nillumbik (S)
3.03
Hume (C)
3.02
Whittlesea (C)
2.99
Casey (C)
2.92
Brimbank (C)
2.91
Melton (S)
2.91
Wyndham (C)
2.85
Cardinia (S)
2.79
Manningham (C)
2.76
Knox (C)
2.76
Greater Dandenong (C)
2.72
Yarra Ranges (S)
2.72
Monash (C)
2.63
Boroondara (C)
2.54
Banyule (C)
2.53
Maroondah (C)
2.52
Hobsons Bay (C)
2.50
Whitehorse (C)
2.50
Bayside (C)
2.49
Frankston (C)
2.47
Kingston (C)
2.45
Moonee Valley (C)
2.43
Moreland (C)
2.40
Darebin (C)
2.39
Mornington Peninsula (S)
2.38
Glen Eira (C)
2.37
Maribyrnong (C)
2.37
Stonnington (C)
2.13
Yarra (C)
2.11
Melbourne (C)
1.90
Port Phillip (C)
1.87
Occupancy Rate
* To calculate occupancy rate, divide Occupied Private Dwellings (OPD) by Structural Private Dwellings (SPD)
** The total for the Shire of Yarra Ranges does not include data for the Statistical Local Area (SLA) of "Yarra Ranges (S) - Pt B", as this lies outside the Melbourne Statistical Division
The occupancy rate of each LGA is not projeced to change over the next 20 years:
Year to June 30th 2009
Knox (C)
0.98
Nillumbik (S)
0.98
Whittlesea (C)
0.98
Manningham (C)
0.98
Casey (C)
0.97
Monash (C)
0.97
Banyule (C)
0.97
Hume (C)
0.97
Maroondah (C)
0.97
Whitehorse (C)
0.97
Greater Dandenong (C)
0.97
Kingston (C)
0.96
Boroondara (C)
0.96
Yarra Ranges (S)
0.96
Frankston (C)
0.96
Cardinia (S)
0.96
Brimbank (C)
0.96
Glen Eira (C)
0.96
Darebin (C)
0.95
Hobsons Bay (C)
0.95
Moreland (C)
0.95
Moonee Valley (C)
0.95
Maribyrnong (C)
0.95
Wyndham (C)
0.95
Bayside (C)
0.95
Melton (S)
0.95
Yarra (C)
0.94
Stonnington (C)
0.94
Port Phillip (C)
0.92
Melbourne (C)
0.88
Mornington Peninsula (S)
0.76
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